The Elections in Somalia and Somaliland

Introduction

On 24 May, political leaders in Somalia agreed on a framework for the national elections after delays triggered a crisis. Chairwoman of the electoral commission Halimo Ismail stated the lengthy delay of the elections was due to “significant technical and security challenges.” Of the new deal prime minister Hussein Roble said “my dear brothers, politicians, whatever you need is in front of me. Do not search in other places. Let's all forgive one another, and I ask you to forgive me”.

The agreement was signed by the prime minister and the leaders of 5 regional states. It set out a path for indirect parliamentary elections to start within 60 days, with each region designating two venues to allow clan elders and clan representatives to select lawmakers to the lower house. Parliament had also voted to extend president Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed’s term by two years and for the country to hold its future polls under a one-person-one-vote system. However, the move was rejected by the senate, prime minister, opposition leaders and four of the country’s six federal member states, leading to a standoff in the capital.

With the stalemate in Mogadishu overcome and a general accord reached, Roble has said that the government is committed to moving forward and implementing the agreement; “my government is reassuring to the country’s political stakeholders and to the Somali people that my government will hold free and fair indirect elections in line with this agreement” adding “of course, we are all responsible to ensure women get their 30% quota (of positions)”. The lower house of parliament voted unanimously to restore the plan which is a refurbished version of an agreement reached in 2020 allowing the country to hold indirect elections.

Image 2 Credit: Farah Abdi Warsameh/Associated Press. Lawmakers did not set a date for the elections

Professor of international affairs at Qatar University, Afyare Abdi Elmi, praised the agreement, saying it brings hope to Somalia. “The leaders have solved and successfully fixed all the outstanding issues that delayed elections, including the composition of electoral and dispute resolution commissions and election procedures for Somaliland and Gedo regions and it is a promising political future for Somalia,” said Elmi. While James Swan, the UN special representative for Somalia stated his support for the framework, “the United Nations and Somalia’s international partners present here welcome the agreement,” Swan said. “We pay tribute to the Somali- led and Somali-owned process that produced this consensus”. In his briefing to the UN Security Council, Swan warned that without this political consensus, Somalia’s political gains would be in danger. “Without such an agreement, and the goodwill and sincerity to implement it, the gains which have been made in recent years may be reversed, risking further instability and insecurity,” said Swan. “Somalia has come back from the brink of this worst-case scenario.”

Background

Somalia has undergone dramatic changes in recent years, recognition of its strategic significance is on the rise and it is no longer seen simply through the lens of counter-terrorism. Against this backdrop elections have been on the horizon for the past year and in recent months it has witnessed a surge in civic action, protests and violence due to, caused partially the delay of the elections and the status of the president. Discussions for holding elections between the federal government and regional leaders started in March, however, they broke down in early April, as the two houses of parliament were in conflict over the status of President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, known widely as Farmajo. Somalia’s president said he would hand over the election process and security leadership to the prime minister and accept a return to dialogue with political rivals. Farmajo’s term had expired in February, but the lower house of parliament voted strongly to extend his term by two years, the move sparked widespread opposition led by two former presidents and well known political figures. Pressure from local and international actors forced Farmajo to request that the legislators cancel the presidential term extension, resulting in a consultative national meeting led by the Somali prime minister.

Somalia has not held a direct one-person-one-vote election since 1969 and several attempts to organise one have been abandoned due to security problems or a lack of political will. The indirect model has been used before. This year it was to go further in terms of inclusivity, with double the polling locations and almost twice as many delegates voting as the last election attempt in 2017 which did not occur, as hostilities between Farmajo and the leaders of Puntland and Jubaland dismantled the plan.

Of the new plan, Farmajo stated that he directed prime minister Roble to “spearhead the process of preparations and the implementation of the electoral process including key election security arrangements to ensure elections take in a peaceful and stable atmosphere” the president added “I also ask the opposition leaders to play their role in pacifying the country and Mogadishu, in particular, for the sake of the people, country and religion”. Although this remains to be seen as much of the opposition believe that Farmajo will not actually agree to the terms of any election that does not favour him. Between 60,000 and 100,000 people were forced to flee following clashes in April that caused fear of all-out war between heavily armed factions for and against the president.

Afyare Elmi said that Roble also faces significant challenges ahead of the upcoming vote, “first, everybody mistrusts this government. He has to gain confidence that was lost. Second, he has to actually engage all of the parties that have issues with this election.”

Clan elders were expected to have selected lawmakers at the end of last year, then the new lawmakers were due to appoint a new president on 8 February this year. As a result of disputes over issues including the composition of an election commission tasked with supervising the vote, neither political process took place. Mobilization of clan militias began, thus exposing divisions within Somali security forces, and Mogadishu witnessed violent clashes on April 25. The discord caused concern that clans might turn on each other and that al-Shabab may exploit a security vacuum. Somalia was originally aiming to hold its first direct election since civil war broke out in 1991, however delays in preparations and repeated attacks by al-Shabab forced it to revert to an indirect vote.

‘A Somali-led, Somali-owned process’

The elections are expected to cost more than $15 million, and the pandemic has depleted Somalia's revenues. When speaking about last month’s deal Foreign Minister Mohamed Abdirizak said the "agreement is historic. It was a Somali-led and Somali-owned process but that doesn't mean its implementation can also be all Somali-owned, we still need our international partners." Somalia’s government relies on international support, rather than interference, in its long-standing battle against al-Shabab, who are allied with al-Qaida. Al-Shabab controls large swathes of southern and central Somalia and regularly targets Mogadishu with suicide bombings. According to diplomats, the violent acts by the extremists will make it difficult to hold election rallies and voting.

The international community including the UN, the African Union Mission in Somalia, the EU, the US and Britain welcomed the announcement by the electoral committee. They issued a joint statement backing the new deal in which they supported the continued need for the Somali people to take part in inclusive dialogue to develop the widest possible agreement among Somalia’s political parties over the election. The Forum of National Parties opposition alliance, denounced the postponement last year. The Forum stated that president Mohamed had been pursuing an unconstitutional term extension by delaying the elections. Opposition leaders called for the leaders of the electoral commission to resign.

President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed had sought a second term, while the opposition has accused him of filling regional and national electoral boards with allies. The lower house of parliament voted to prolong the president's four-year term by further two years in April. The Senate rejected the extension, and troops opposed to the decision captured positions in Mogadishu. They have subsequently returned to their barracks. The former internal security minister, lawmaker Abdirizak Mohamed has been a passionate critic of the president but stated the agreement had averted a crisis, saying "a few weeks ago we were on the brink of armed conflict in the city of Mogadishu, and now we have reached a consensus to go for elections, so we are happy".

Somaliland Elections

At the end of last month, voters in Somaliland cast their ballot in parliamentary and local elections, headlining progress in the semi-autonomous region of Somalia. In the past number of years, the region has avoided the destructive violence that has afflicted other parts of the country. It has been mostly peaceful while Somalia has dealt with three decades of civil war.

Over one million of Somaliland’s four million population registered to vote. Like those in Somalia, the elections were delayed. The parliamentary vote had been stalled for more than a decade while the municipal elections were four years late. Somaliland invited international observers for the elections, in addition to political figures from elsewhere in Africa. The region broke away from Somalia in 1991 but no country has recognised the region. Though lacking international acknowledgement, Somaliland has preserved its own independent government, currency and security structure.

Image 3 Credit: Deutsche Welle

Anti-corruption campaigner, John Githongo, who was based in the Somaliland capital, Hargeisa as an observer, described the region as “the one Somalia with a bottom-up democracy that seems to organically work.” While Greg Mills, director of a South Africa-based group that is observing the polls, said in a statement that the region “represents an example of an African country which is committed to democracy and development and deserves the support of every African who wants to see progress on this continent.” Somalia views Somaliland as part of its territory. Numerous rounds of talks over the possible unification have failed to reach a breakthrough and the region continues to uphold its right to independence.

Despite the stalled parliamentary vote, presidential elections have taken place in Somaliland, most recently in 2017 when president Muse Bihi, from Kulmiye, was elected. The next presidential vote is planned for next year.

According to the National Electoral Commission the vote resulted in two opposition parties winning a majority of seats. Out of parliament’s 82 seats, Waddani, the Somaliland National Party, secured 31 and the Justice and Welfare Party (UCID), won 21 seats. Kulmiye, the ruling Peace, Unity and Development Party, won 30 seats, the electoral commission announced on Sunday. Together the parties also won a majority of the seats in municipal races, and said that they aim to cooperate on city councils throughout the region and nominate mayors together. None of the 13 women who ran for parliament won their races.

Sources

Image 1 Credit: Reuters/Feisal Omar

Image 2 Credit: Farah Abdi Warsameh/Associated Press. Lawmakers did not set a date for the elections

Image 3 Credit: Deutsche Welle